A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
